The collapse of the Iran nuclear deal with the US is a devastating blow, not only to diplomacy but to every nation on the globe.
The immediate, excruciating pain will be felt in the most basic commodity of the modern economy: the barrel of oil.
A visibly agitated US President Donald Trump has labeled Iranian authorities as “liars”, arguing that Tehran failed to abide by the commitments it signed.
Tehran, in turn, says it was cornered by sanctions and broken promises. The result is the same: a short-lived peace deal is now in tatters.
This will not only cost lives if conflict escalates. It will inflict unbearable economic hardship on ordinary citizens already struggling to make ends meet.
When oil prices spike, the pain travels instantly — to the taxi rank in Khayelitsha, to the spaza shop in Qonce, to the farm in the Eastern Cape.
It is time for governments, civil society, and religious leaders to declare mass prayers and mass action for peace in the world. This war was unwanted.
It did not follow the post-World War II agreements and institutions we built to prevent exactly this kind of escalation.
Instead, we are now subjected to sarcastic statements as leaders grow frustrated and the Iran regime digs in. Sarcasm does not feed children. Sarcasm does not keep the lights on.
For SA, this is not a distant geopolitical drama. It is a direct economic threat.
We must immediately look at alternatives, including but not limited to resuscitating available refinery infrastructure within our borders.
For years we have allowed key refineries to sit idle or operate below capacity due to maintenance, fires, and policy drift. That luxury is over.
A war-related oil shock will hit our fuel price within weeks. The Central Energy Fund, PetroSA, and the private sector must be brought into an emergency energy task team.
We need a plan to secure strategic fuel stocks, fast-track refinery maintenance, and negotiate term oil contracts outside of the volatile spot market.
We cannot be hostages to a conflict 8,000km away. Renewables must be accelerated too, but they will not fill a fuel tank tomorrow. In the short term, it is about diesel, petrol, and getting goods to market without the price exploding.
To further cushion the impact of this economic catastrophe, government must encourage and assist rural communities with mass food production using the thousands of hectares of disused communal land in provinces like Limpopo, Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal.
We have the land. We have the people willing to work it. What we lack is inputs, tractors, irrigation, and market access. This is where the state must step in decisively. Agricultural extension officers, co-operatives, and bulk procurement from government must be activated now.
The Ingonyama Trust lands in KwaZulu-Natal represent one of the largest tracts of communal land in the country. The trust’s funds should be used to help sustain food production for rural KZN citizens.
Food parcels are not a long-term plan. Tilling the soil is. Let us turn vulnerability into productivity. A hungry population cannot build an economy.
At this point every available resource must be used to protect livelihoods in a sustainable way. This unending geopolitical war, combined with the latest news of the peace deal collapse, finds South Africa already in a double crisis.
Recent reports indicate that 14 million South Africans are experiencing hunger, with over 1,000 people dying from malnutrition-related causes, including in provinces like the Eastern Cape. Those are not statistics. Those are mothers, grandfathers, and children.
When global oil goes up, transport goes up. When transport goes up, food goes up. When food goes up, the poorest are the first to fall off. We are already seeing it. We cannot wait for the next quarterly report to act.
This calls on all of us to put our hands on deck to push back the frontiers of poverty using innovative means. We must fast-track the Social Relief of Distress grant and ensure it is indexed to food inflation.
We must consider zero-rating more basic food items beyond the current VAT basket. We must support township and rural micro-economies with fuel and electricity rebates for small businesses so they do not collapse under input costs. And we need a war room on profiteering. We must police price gouging on fuel, bread, and maize meal with the same seriousness we police other crimes.
We must also be honest about diplomacy.
SA’s foreign policy has always been rooted in dialogue, multilateralism, and peace. That voice must be louder now. We should use our seat in the UN, BRICS, and the AU to call for an immediate return to negotiations, for the sake of global stability and for the sake of our own people.
War in the Middle East is not a spectator sport for us. It is paid for at the petrol pump and at the till.
To our religious leaders, now is the time to pray but also to organise food drives, community gardens, and support for the elderly. To our business leaders, now is the time to hold prices, not exploit them. To government, now is the time to spend smart, cut waste, and protect the most vulnerable.
We did not start this crisis. But we will be judged by how we respond to it.
The barrel of oil may set the price, but it should not set our fate. If we move now on energy, on food, and on protecting the poor, we can absorb the shock. If we hesitate, the shock will absorb us.
Sizwe Kupelo writes in his personal capacity