Just when everybody thought it was safe to go back in the water, excuse the pun, disaster is once again on our doorstep.
At the time of starting this week’s column, all media was abuzz with severe weather warnings about another cut-off low passing over our area, bringing with it another spell of heavy rains.
The models were not wrong and by 8am on Thursday, the Garden Route through to Thornhill had already recorded between 100 and 150mm-plus in some areas.
Figures in our metro varied between 60 and 100mm-plus over the western areas and well over 100mm in the Kariega area.
With dams overflowing, rivers still swollen and many areas still inundated with water, any rain whatsoever will cause problems for many still recovering from the May event.
As the Beervlei flood control dam (for the Groot River) is sitting at 98%, and with the Kouga Dam at 100% plus, it is no wonder that I have been swamped as to my opinion regarding what might materialise over the next week.
As feared, not long after the rains started, by Wednesday evening orders were given to evacuate the lower reaches of the Gamtoos River.
I think we are all holding thumbs that the Gamtoos Ferry Hotel is not flooded again, as they were still struggling with mop-up operations before the rains came.
The eastern side of the Baviaanskloof at Cambria has suffered seriously. As one local put it, there is nothing more to be washed away at Bruintjieskraal — it has already been washed away.
Then we have the often forgotten Groendal Dam just outside Kariega, which is also full.
Any rain falling in its catchment will directly affect the entire Swartkops valley area, as well as Kariega itself.
The Kruis river’s level started rising almost immediately as the rains began and numerous low-lying areas around the Kruis, Elands and Swartkops started to experience flooding.
Although reports of damage will only start coming in over the next couple of days, one can expect the current disaster to be compounded by the effects of the previous rains.
Areas in the Western Cape have been particularly hard hit, with roads in Meiringspoort, The Poort (Uniondale) and numerous other passes being washed away.
Areas in the Langkloof are still cut off from the previous rains as they await to see the effects of this event.
Farm roads in the area which have been temporarily repaired by farmers will more than likely need to be repaired once again.
At Assegaaibosch, where the low-water bridge was temporarily repaired for people to gain access to Kareedouw, the bridge was damaged again.
The river destroyed the previous temporary repairs, so they are once again cut off from the outside world.
Thankfully by the time of publication the rains should have subsided and the mop-up operations and counting costs of the damage will be in full swing.
How unusual is a double occurrence like this, many might ask.
Having two severe events within two months has only occurred six times since 1900, and only once in the months of May and June, which occurred in 1945.
One consolation is that it has never happened in three consecutive months.
Besides numerous suburbs in the metro having recorded a monthly total of more than 250mm, the official figure recorded at the airport for May was 211mm.
This would make May 2026 the second wettest May on record, only being surpassed by the 268.2mm recorded in 1935, a record that has stood for 90-plus years.
Although not considered as a wet or flood month, May often gets good rainfall.
In the past 126 years (1900 to 2026) May has received a monthly total of 100mm 25 times, 150mm 12 times and above 200mm only twice (which includes this year).
The big headache for forecasters is that the seasonal forecast has maintained its below average forecast for the winter season, which has just been updated this week. This is most especially with the forecast of the “Super El Niño”.
I did, however, have a colleague who had the theory that whenever there are extremely dry periods in the summer rainfall regions, caused by the El Niño phenomena, the southern coast seems to experience a wet spell.
Although statistics do show this, the summer rainfall regions are just coming out of a bumper above normal rainfall season, with many places receiving above 130% of their long-term average rainfall.
To say that the weather is topsy-turvy would be an understatement.
With weather like this it would be unfair to criticise any forecaster for getting it wrong.
If we add the extreme north-westerly gale experienced last month into the fray, one could echo all the choruses of the climate change choir.
Nobody can be blamed for believing this is concrete evidence of climate change.
One must then ask if this is real climate change, or just the normal effects of the cyclical nature of climate, as stated in biblical texts about the seven years of abundance and the seven years of famine.
Having experienced a dry spell for such an extended period made us all believe that these rains would never come.
At one stage I was nearly converted to that belief, even though I constantly chanted that this is the nature of the beast as far as our local climate is concerned.
In other words, we are either in a drought or recovering from a flood.
Noting that both these events together would be minor in comparison to 1908, 1968 and 1981, one must ask whether we will survive a flood of biblical proportions that I always talk about.
If the damage and destruction caused by the previous event and who knows what will happen over the next few days, you can only hope that those were one in 1,000-year events and will not occur again in our lifetime.
This week in history:
2017: Damaging winds reported in East London
Dam Levels
100.83% down from previous week at 101.32 % (before the rain started)
Impofu up to 100.6%
Weather Safety Tips:
With washaways and rapid rises in river levels during floods, it is wise to steer well away from rivers and low-lying areas.
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